Determinants of Poverty in East Nusa Tenggara 2010-2024
Abstract
Poverty remains a persistent development challenge in East Nusa Tenggara (NTT), reflecting structural constraints in an archipelagic region with high inter-district heterogeneity. Most previous studies on poverty determinants in NTT rely on static models and therefore have limited capacity to capture poverty persistence and potential endogeneity between poverty and its determinants. This study aims to analyze the determinants of district- and city-level poverty in NTT from 2010 to 2024 using a dynamic panel approach. The dataset comprises 22 districts and cities observed over 15 years, yielding 330 observations, and is sourced from Statistics Indonesia (BPS). Estimation is conducted using the First Difference Generalized Method of Moments (FD GMM) with one-step robust standard errors to address dynamic panel bias and endogeneity concerns. The results indicate that poverty is persistent, as shown by a positive and significant lagged poverty coefficient. Economic growth, proxied by lnGRDP, significantly reduces poverty, while human capital indicators, such as years of schooling (MYS) and life expectancy (LE), also exert significant poverty-reducing effects. In contrast, the open unemployment rate (OUR) and population size (lnPOP) are not statistically significant. Notably, the minimum wage (lnMW) is positively and significantly associated with poverty, suggesting potential employment or adjustment pressures when wage policy is misaligned with productivity. Policy implications emphasize the need for inclusive growth, strengthened investments in education and health, and a minimum wage design consistent with local productivity and labor-market structure.
Downloads
References
Abel, Y. H. F. H., Nooraeni, R., & Lestariningsih, E. (2023). Faktor-Faktor Yang Memengaruhi Kemiskinan Secara Langsung Dan Tidak Langsung Di Nusa Tenggara Timur. JURNAL STATISTIKA TERAPAN, 3(1), 78–89.
Aini, L. N., & Islamy, S. N. (2021). Dampak penganguran, pendidikan, kesehatan, PDRB dan indeks pembangunan manusia terhadap kemiskinan di Indonesia. Journal of Economics Research and Policy Studies, 1(3), 132–141.
Angelia, F., & Anitasari, M. (2025). Pengaruh Indeks Pembangunan Manusia , Pengangguran dan Jumlah Penduduk Terhadap Kemiskinan di Pulau Jawa Tahun 2014-2022. Ranah Research : Journal of Multidiciplinary Research and Development, 7(4), 2796–2806. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.38035/rrj.
Anozi, D. T., & Novianda, B. (2023). Socio-Economic and Property Crime Rate in Indonesia. Economics Development Analysis Journal, 12(3), 305–318.
Baltagi, B. H. (2005). Econometric Analysis of Panel Data.
Bebo, M. A., & Priyono, J. (2025). Pengaruh Tingkat Pengangguran dan Tingkat Kemiskinan Di Provinsi Nusa Tenggara Timur Tahun 2019-2023. Jurnal Publikasi Ekonomi Dan Akuntansi, 5(1), 19–24. https://doi.org/10.51903/jupea.v5i1.4417
Berliana, A. Y., Rahmawati, D. A., & Grahayuningtyas, N. (2025). PENERAPAN KEBIJAKAN UPAH MINIMUM TERHADAP KEMISKINAN DAN PENYERAPAN TENAGA KERJA PROVINSI JAWA TENGAH Amalia. JEB 17 Jurnal Ekonomi & Bisnis, 10(1), 99–108.
Christiani, N. V., & Nainupu, A. E. (2021). Pengaruh Akses Terhadap Internet , Listrik dan PDRB Per Kapita Terhadap Tingkat Kemiskinan di Nusa Tenggara Timur Tahun Penyedia Data Statistik Berkualitas untuk Indonesia Maju Pengaruh Akses Terhadap Internet , Listrik Dan PDRB Per Kapita Terhadap. JURNAL STATISTIKA TERAPAN, 1(1).
Falah, M. A., & Rahmawati, F. (2024). The GRDP per capita , human development index , open unemployment rate , regional expenditure , and poverty in East Java Province. 25(April), 1–16. https://doi.org/10.18196/jesp.v25i1.21327
Fuady, M., Farrel, M. R., & Aulia, F. (2022). Kemiskinan Multi Dimensi dan Indeks Pembangunan Manusia di Indonesia Multi Dimensional Poverty and Human Development Index in Indonesia. TATA LOKA, 24(4), 330–337.
Handani, T., & Suharianto, J. (2025). Pengaruh TPT , PDRB , dan TPAK Terhadap Kemiskinan di Provinsi Sumatera Utara Periode 2002-2023. Jurnal Ekonomi Dan Keuangan, 3(2), 22–39.
Hapsari, P. M., Devani, S. B., Aprikania, S. H. D., Salsabilah, A. F., & Dinandhiya, S. F. (2025). ANALYSIS OF THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN GDP , EDUCATION AND GENDER EMPOWERMENT INDEX TO POVERTY IN FIVE DISTRICTS OF CENTRAL JAVA. JISEB Jurnal Ilmiah Sosio-Ekonomika Bisnis, 28(01), 57–69. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.22437/jiseb.46672
Isbahi, M. B., Zuana, M. M. M., & Toha, M. (2024). The Multi-Social Relation of the Cattle Industry in the Plaosan Subdistrict Animal Market of Magetan Regency. Malacca: Journal of Management and Business Development, 1(1), 31–46. https://doi.org/10.69965/malacca.v1i1.51
Kamil, A., Alwi, M., & Hidayat, A. A. (2025). Analisis Pengaruh PDRB, Pendidikan, dan Pengangguran terhadap Kemiskinan di Provinsi NTB. Jurnal Ekonomi Dan Kewirausahaan West Science, 3(02), 123–132.
Kartasasmita, G., & (Indonesia), C. for I. and D. S. (1996). Pembangunan untuk rakyat: memadukan pertumbuhan dan pemerataan (pp. xx, 517 p.). CIDES. https://catalog.hathitrust.org/Record/003128823
Kripfganz, S., & Breitung, J. (2022). Bias-corrected estimation of linear dynamic panel data models (Issue 2022).
Kuncoro, M. (1997). Ekonomi pembangunan: teori, masalah, dan kebijakan.
Malthus Thomas Robert. (2010). The Online Library of Liberty A Project Of Liberty Fund, Inc. Thomas Robert Malthus, An Essay on the Principle of Population [1798, 1st ed.] [1798].
Mukharohmah, S. M., & Fadhilah, N. (2025). Determinan Kemiskinan Provinsi Daerah Istimewa Yogyakarta: Pendekatan Data Panel Tahun 2018-2024. Jurnal Riset Daerah Badan Perencanaan Pembangunan Daerah (BAPPEDA) Kabupaten Bantul, XXV(3), 137–148.
Muna, M. N. (2025). Analisis Pengaruh Pendidikan , Tingkat Upah Minimum dan Kesempatan Kerja Terhadap Kemiskinan di Jawa Tengah. Peng Jurnal Ekonomi Dan Manajemen, 2(2), 3817–3824. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.62710/c7h03s17
Nasirudin, A., & Haviz, M. (2025). Pengaruh Tingkat Pendidikan , Pengangguran Terbuka , dan PDRB terhadap Tingkat Kemiskinan di Indonesia. Jurnal Riset Ilmu Ekonomi Dan Bisnis (JRIEB), 5(1), 21–28. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.29313/jrieb.v5i1.6398
Nurkse, R. (1953). Problems of capital formation in underdeveloped countries and Patterns of trade and development. https://doi.org/10.2307/1173543
Qomarina, N. N., Azira, N., Natal, R., Tarihoran, R., & Panggabean, V. E. (2025). Pengaruh Tingkat Pengangguran Terbuka Dan Jumlah Penduduk Terhadap Kemiskinan Di Indonesia ( Periode 2004-2023 ). Department of Digital Business Journal of Artificial Intelligence and Digital Business (RIGGS), 4(4), 2822–2834. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/ 10.31004/riggs.v4i4.3923
R, W. A. P., & Sukartini, N. M. (2025). PENGARUH PENDIDIKAN, PDRB DAN TIPE PEMERINTAH TERHADAP KEMISKINAN. Jurnal Ilmiah MEA (Manajemen, Ekonomi, Dan Akuntansi), 9(1), 530–546.
Rinaldi. (2025). Analisis Pengaruh Investasi , TPT dan UMR terhadap Kemiskinan di Provinsi Sumatera Barat Tahun 2010-2024. Jurnal Publikasi Ekonomi Dan Akuntansi, 3(2), 1–23.
Roodman, D. (2009). This document is discoverable and free to researchers across the globe due to the work of AgEcon Search . Help ensure our sustainability . How to do xtabond2 : An introduction to difference and system GMM in Stata.
Saputri, N. V. A., & Imaningsih, N. (2025). Analisis pengaruh inflasi, upah minimum, dan tingkat kemiskinan terhadap pengeluaran konsumsi rumah tangga di provinsi jawa tengah. EKUILNOMI: Jurnal Ekonomi Pembangunan, 7(3), 822–832. https://doi.org/https://10.36985/7zj4g892
Tarigan, B. P., & Arka, S. (2025). Analisis Pengaruh Angkatan Kerja , Pendidikan , Upah Minimum , dan PDRB pada Pengangguran dan Kemiskinan di Kabupaten / Kota DKI Jakarta. JCRD: Journal of Citizen Research and Development, 2(1), 206–212.
Triono, T. A., & Sangaji, R. C. (2023). Faktor Mempengaruhi Tingkat Kemiskinan di Indonesia : Studi Literatur Laporan Data Kemiskinan BPS Tahun 2022. Journal of Society Bridge, 1(1), 59–67.
Violita. (2024). ANALISIS FAKTOR-FAKTOR YANG MEMPENGARUHI TINGKAT KEMISKINAN DI NUSA TENGGARA TIMUR PADA TAHUN 2002-2023. Skripsi.
Wulandari, M., Bakara, S., & Suharianto, J. (2025). Analisis Pengaruh Laju Pertumbuhan Ekonomi , Upah Minimum Regional Dan Pengangguran Terhadap Tingkat Kemiskinan Di Sumatera Utara Tahun 2001 – 2021. ULIL ALBAB : Jurnal IlmiahMultidisiplin, 4(5), 1333–1357.
Wulansari, R. Y., Fadhilah, N., & Huda, M. (2023). Faktor Yang Mempengaruhi Kemiskinan di Indonesia. Journal of Economic, Management, Accounting and Technology (JEMATech) Vol., 6(1), 82–95.
Xie, X. (2023). Analyzing the Impact of Digital Inclusive Finance on Poverty Reduction : A Study Based on System GMM in China. Sustainability, 15.
Copyright (c) 2026 Rifqi Bayu Apriyo, Fafurida Fafurida
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.
Authors who publish with this journal agree to the following terms:
- Authors retain copyright and grant the journal right of first publication with the work simultaneously licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution License that allows others to share the work with an acknowledgment of the work's authorship and initial publication in this journal.
- Authors are able to enter into separate, additional contractual arrangements for the non-exclusive distribution of the journal's published version of the work (e.g., post it to an institutional repository or publish it in a book), with an acknowledgment of its initial publication in this journal.
- Authors are permitted and encouraged to post their work online (e.g., in institutional repositories or on their website) prior to and during the submission process, as it can lead to productive exchanges, as well as earlier and greater citation of published work.
