OUT-MIGRATION IN INDONESIA AND ITS DETERMINING FACTORS
Abstract
This study aims to analyze the influence of economic factors on out-migration in Indonesia, with a focus on poverty, wage levels, labor force participation, and unemployment rates. The research utilizes panel data from 34 provinces across three observation periods—2010, 2015, and 2020—employing a quantitative approach through panel data regression. The Fixed Effects Model (FEM) is determined as the most appropriate model based on the Chow and Hausman tests. The estimation results indicate that poverty and labor force size have a positive effect on out-migration. Meanwhile, wage levels and unemployment rates do not show a significant impact. These findings suggest that regional economic disparities and labor market pressures drive population mobility to other areas. Therefore, policies focusing on reducing regional inequality, expanding employment opportunities, and strengthening local economic bases are needed. This study contributes to migration research through the use of nationally scaled panel data, which enables a more structured explanation of the spatial and temporal dynamics of out-migration in Indonesia.
Downloads
References
Alvarez, M., Bernard, A., & Lieske, S. N. (2021). Understanding internal migration trends in OECD countries. Population, Space and Place, 27(7), e2451. https://doi.org/10.1002/psp.2451
Awasthi, I., & Mehta, B. S. (2020). Forced out-migration from hill regions and return migration during the pandemic: Evidence from Uttarakhand. The Indian Journal of Labour Economics, 63(4), 1107–1124. https://doi.org/10.1007/s41027-020-00291-w
Baltagi, B. H. (2021). Econometric analysis of panel data (6th ed.). Springer. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-53953-5
Batubara, K. F., Harahap, I., & Anggara, W. (2025, July). The phenomenon of population migration and urbanization on the formation of new cities in Indonesia. In Proceedings of the Annual International Conference on Interdisciplinary Islamic Studies (pp. 135–141). Redwhite Press. https://doi.org/10.32698/aicoiis24604
Bollyky, T. J., Graetz, N., Dieleman, J., Miller-Petrie, M. K., Schoder, D., Joyce, S., … Hay, S. I. (2022). Growing up and moving out: Migration and the demographic transition in low- and middle-income nations. Population Studies, 76(1), 63–80. https://doi.org/10.1080/00324728.2022.2034919
Das, P., Saha, J., & Chouhan, P. (2020). Effects of labor out-migration on socio-economic set-up at the place of origin: Evidence from rural India. Children and Youth Services Review, 119, 105512. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.childyouth.2020.105512
Dettori, J. R., Norvell, D. C., & Chapman, J. R. (2022). Fixed-effect vs random-effects models for meta-analysis: Three points to consider. Global Spine Journal, 12(7), 1624–1626. https://doi.org/10.1177/21925682221110527
Ditzen, J., Karavias, Y., & Westerlund, J. (2025). Testing and estimating structural breaks in time series and panel data in Stata. The Stata Journal, 25(3), 526–560. https://doi.org/10.1177/1536867X251365449
Dorn, D., & Zweimüller, J. (2021). Migration and labor market integration in Europe. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 35(2), 49–76. https://doi.org/10.1257/jep.35.2.49
Fagereng, A., Onshuus, H., & Torstensen, K. N. (2024). The consumption expenditure response to unemployment: Evidence from Norwegian households. Journal of Monetary Economics, 146, 103578. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmoneco.2024.103578
Hansen, H. K., Lyngemark, D. H., & Weatherall, C. D. (2021). Migration and employment after an economic shock: Regional characteristics and migration patterns. Regional Studies, 55(5), 907–920. https://doi.org/10.1080/00343404.2020.1814230
Hunter, L. M., & Simon, D. H. (2023). Time to mainstream the environment into migration theory? International Migration Review, 57(1), 5–35. https://doi.org/10.1177/01979183221074343
Juliana, A., Daeng, A., & Satarudin, S. (2023). Pengaruh pendidikan, kemiskinan, dan tingkat pengangguran terhadap jumlah pekerja migran Indonesia (PMI) ke luar negeri di Provinsi Nusa Tenggara Barat. Jurnal Konstanta, 2(1), 1–13. https://doi.org/10.29303/konstanta.v2i1.489
Kaluarachchi, S., & Jayathilaka, R. (2024). Unveiling Sri Lanka’s brain drain and labour market pressure: A study of macroeconomic factors on migration. PLOS ONE, 19(3), e0300343. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0300343
Khoirunurrofik, K., Abdurrachman, F., & Rachmanto, U. N. (2022). Socioeconomic and policy determinants of mobility during COVID-19: Evidence from Indonesian cities. Journal of Urban Management, 11(4), 424–436. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jum.2022.07.003
Kwilinski, A., Lyulyov, O., Pimonenko, T., Dzwigol, H., Abazov, R., & Pudryk, D. (2022). International migration drivers: Economic, environmental, social, and political effects. Sustainability, 14(11), 6413. https://doi.org/10.3390/su14116413
Lim, W. M. (2025). What is quantitative research? An overview and guidelines. Australasian Marketing Journal, 33(3), 325–348. https://doi.org/10.1177/14413582241264622
Lova, Y. S., & Aisyah, S. (2024). International migration in Indonesia and its influencing factors. Jurnal Ekonomi, 13(1), 1309–1321. https://www.ejournal.seaninstitute.or.id/index.php/Ekonomi/article/view/3935
Malahayati, M., Masui, T., & Anggraeni, L. (2021). An assessment of the short-term impact of COVID-19 on economics and the environment: A case study of Indonesia. EconomiA, 22(3), 291–313. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econ.2021.12.003
Mangara, T. H., Saputri, W., & Putri, R. A. (2024). Pengaruh kondisi sosial, ekonomi, dan ketenagakerjaan terhadap migrasi luar negeri di Indonesia (studi kasus: 33 provinsi di Indonesia tahun 2013–2022). Benefits: Journal of Economics and Tourism, 1(1), 16–32. https://doi.org/10.69836/benefits-jeti.v1i1.9
Nugroho, A. R. I., & Arif, M. (2024). Determinants of the number of impoverished people in Central Java, Indonesia. Journal of Enterprise and Development, 6(1), 212–222. https://doi.org/10.20414/jed.v6i1.9431
Ochoa-Moreno, W. S., Quito, B., del Río-Rama, M. D. L. C., & Torres-Díaz, V. (2025). Analysis of push and pull factors in net migration in Latin American countries and the Caribbean. Quality & Quantity, 59(3), 1999–2023. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11135-024-02002-9
Oyvat, C., & wa Gĩthĩnji, M. (2020). Migration in Kenya: Beyond Harris–Todaro. International Review of Applied Economics, 34(1), 4–35. https://doi.org/10.1080/02692171.2019.1620702
Pardede, E. L., McCann, P., & Venhorst, V. A. (2020). Internal migration in Indonesia: New insights from longitudinal data. Asian Population Studies, 16(3), 287–309. https://doi.org/10.1080/17441730.2020.1774139
Paudel, S. N. (2025). The influence of domestic socio-economic development on migration decisions in low- and middle-income countries: A migration capabilities perspective. Journal of Asian Development Studies, 14(1), 1–27. https://doi.org/10.62345/jads.2025.14.1.1
Poledna, S., Strelkovskii, N., Conte, A., Goujon, A., Linnerooth-Bayer, J., Catalano, M., & Rovenskaya, E. (2024). Economic and labour market impacts of migration in Austria: An agent-based modelling approach. Comparative Migration Studies, 12(1), 18. https://doi.org/10.1186/s40878-024-00374-3
Santoso, B. M., & Artaningtyas, W. D. (2024). Determinan migrasi internasional pekerja migran Indonesia (tahun 2017–2022). JER (Jurnal Ekonomi Regional), 16(1), 29–39. https://doi.org/10.31315/jer.v16i1.13062
Saputro, R. H., & Arif, M. (2024). What factors affecting poverty rates in Indonesia? Empirical evidence from West Sumatra. Journal of Enterprise and Development, 6(1), 248–258. https://doi.org/10.20414/jed.v6i1.9430
Sari, N. L. W. C., & Tisnawati, N. M. (2024). Analysis of the determinants of international migration of Indonesian migrant workers from city districts in Bali Province. International Journal of Management Research and Economics, 2(3), 365–379. https://doi.org/10.54066/ijmre-itb.v2i3.2079
Sulung, U., & Muspawi, M. (2024). Memahami sumber data penelitian: Primer, sekunder, dan tersier. Edu Research, 5(3), 110–116. https://doi.org/10.47827/jer.v5i3.238
Szymczak, S., & Wolszczak-Derlacz, J. (2022). Global value chains and labour markets—simultaneous analysis of wages and employment. Economic Systems Research, 34(1), 69–96. https://doi.org/10.1080/09535314.2021.1982678
Telaumbanua, W. K., Ndraha, A. B., Telaumbanua, E., & Zebua, S. (2025). Pengaruh tingkat upah dan lapangan kerja terhadap migrasi penduduk di wilayah Kecamatan Sawo Kabupaten Nias Utara. Arus Jurnal Sosial dan Humaniora, 5(3), 3985–4000. https://doi.org/10.57250/ajsh.v5i3.1821
Tomoiagă, E., & Silaghi, M. I. P. (2023). Internal migration in Romania: Revisiting the Harris–Todaro model of migration. European Journal of Interdisciplinary Studies, 15(2), 176–185. https://doi.org/10.24818/ejis.2023.23
Trisetiyo, W., & Haviz, M. (2020). The effect of wages, investment, number of industrial units, and number of job opportunities on the level of migration to DKI Jakarta in 2008–2019. Dinamika Ekonomi, 12(1), 123–132. https://doi.org/10.29313/.v12i1.6780
Tumwesigye, S., Hemerijckx, L. M., Opio, A., Poesen, J., Vanmaercke, M., Twongyirwe, R., & Van Rompaey, A. (2021). Who and why? Understanding rural out-migration in Uganda. Geographies, 1(2), 104–123. https://doi.org/10.3390/geographies1020007
Copyright (c) 2026 Farit Firdaus Lutfiantara, Muhammad Arif

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.
Authors who publish with this journal agree to the following terms:
- Authors retain copyright and grant the journal right of first publication with the work simultaneously licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution License that allows others to share the work with an acknowledgment of the work's authorship and initial publication in this journal.
- Authors are able to enter into separate, additional contractual arrangements for the non-exclusive distribution of the journal's published version of the work (e.g., post it to an institutional repository or publish it in a book), with an acknowledgment of its initial publication in this journal.
- Authors are permitted and encouraged to post their work online (e.g., in institutional repositories or on their website) prior to and during the submission process, as it can lead to productive exchanges, as well as earlier and greater citation of published work.















