The Impact of ESG, Profitability, and Business Risk on Stock Returns: Evidence from the Indonesian Stock Market
Abstract
This study aims to analyze the impact of Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG), profitability, and business risk on stock returns in the Indonesian stock market. The research utilizes panel regression analysis to assess the relationship between ESG scores, profitability, business risk, and stock returns of all publicly listed companies in Indonesia between 2020-2022. The results indicate that ESG does not significantly affect stock returns, which could be attributed to the prevalence of greenwashing in Indonesia. Profitability, shows a positive significant impact on stock returns, suggesting that more profitable companies tend to provide higher stock returns. Business risk negatively impacts stock returns, with companies facing higher risks showing lower returns due to greater price volatility. This study contributes to the theoretical understanding of the relationship between ESG, profitability, business risk, and stock returns in Indonesia. Practically, it offers valuable insights for investors to consider profitability and risk management over ESG claims when making investment decisions. The study is limited by its focus on Indonesian firms and the use of Bloomberg ESG scores, which may not fully capture the actual sustainability practices of companies.
Downloads
References
Aghion, P., Bénabou, R., Martin, R., & Roulet, A. (2023). Environmental Preferences and Technological Choices: Is Market Competition Clean or Dirty? American Economic Review: Insights, 5(1), 1–19. https://doi.org/10.1257/aeri.20210014
Anwar, & Muhammad Nursan. (2025). Buku Ajar Analisis Regresi Data Panel Dengan Aplikasi Eviews (1st ed., Vol. 1). Pustaka Bangsa.
Aziz, F., & Chariri, A. (2023). The Effect of Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) Disclosure and Environmental Performance on Stock Return. Diponegoro Journal of Accountin, 1(11).
Bolton, P., & Kacperczyk, M. (2021). Do investors care about carbon risk? Journal of Financial Economics, 142(2), 517–549. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jfineco.2021.05.008
Bothroyd, K., & Thompson, C. (2025). Fundamentals of Risk Management: Understanding, Evaluating, and Implementing EffectiveEnterprise Risk Management.
Chan, E. Y. (2025). Moral Signaling in Startups: How ESG Claims Shape Stakeholder Judgments and Ethical Legitimacy. Journal of Business Ethics. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10551-025-06039-0
Chipimo, M. L., Bwalya, J., & Kanyanga, J. K. (2025). The Role of ESG in Driving Firm Profitability. SEISENSE Journal of Management, 8(1), 119–131. https://doi.org/10.33215/m1c78498
Connelly, B. L., Certo, S. T., Reutzel, C. R., DesJardine, M. R., & Zhou, Y. S. (2025). Signaling Theory: State of the Theory and Its Future. Journal of Management, 51(1), 24–61. https://doi.org/10.1177/01492063241268459
D’Amato, V., D’Ecclesia, R., & Levantesi, S. (2021). Fundamental ratios as predictors of ESG scores: a machine learning approach. Decisions in Economics and Finance, 44(2), 1087–1110. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10203-021-00364-5
Damayanti, S., & Pertiwi, T. K. (2022). Pengaruh Rasio Profitabilitas , Economic Value Added ( EVA ), Dan Market Value Added ( MVA ) Terhadap Return Saham. Journal of Management & Business, 3(4), 454–462.
David, L. K., Wang, J., Luo, M., & Cisse, I. I. (2025). Green signaling or greenwashing? ESG disclosure, firm performance and capital allocation in BRICS equity markets. Journal of Capital Markets Studies, 9(2), 169–190. https://doi.org/10.1108/JCMS-06-2025-0080
Fadila, N., Goso, G., Hamid, R. S., & Ukkas, I. (2022). Pengaruh Literasi Keuangan, Financial Technology, Persepsi Risiko, dan Locus of Control Terhadap Keputusan Investasi Pengusaha Muda. Owner, 6(2), 1633–1643. https://doi.org/10.33395/owner.v6i2.789
Fathi, S., Mohammadin, Z., & Azarbayjani, K. (2025). Corporate finance signaling theory: an empirical analysis on the relationship between information asymmetry and the cost of equity capital. International Journal of Disclosure and Governance, 22(3), 629–643. https://doi.org/10.1057/s41310-024-00261-4
Fithria, A., & Darma, S. (2024). ESG and Credit Risk: Evidence from Indonesian and Malaysian Banks. Jurnal REKSA: Rekayasa Keuangan, Syariah Dan Audit. https://doi.org/10.12928/jreksa.v11i2.11252
Giese, G., Lee, L., Melas, D., Nagy, Z., & Nishikawa, L. (2019). Foundations of ESG investing: How ESG affects equity valuation, risk, and performance. The Journal of Portfolio Management, 45(5), 69–83.
Handayani, M., Farlian, T., & Ardian, A. (2019). Firm Size, Market Risk, and Stock Return: Evidence from Indonesian Blue Chip Companies. Jurnal Dinamika Akuntansi Dan Bisnis, 6(2), 171–182. https://doi.org/10.24815/jdab.v6i2.13082
Ignatov, K., & Rudolf, M. (2023). Sentimental Sustainability: Does What Companies Say Tell More Than What Companies Do? Financial Markets, Institutions & Instruments, 32(4), 221–252. https://doi.org/10.1111/fmii.12181
Jin, Y. (2023). The Influence of ESG Performance of Companies on Stock Excess Returns: A Case Study of Mining Companies in the U.S. Stock Market. E3S Web of Conferences, 424, 04009. https://doi.org/10.1051/e3sconf/202342404009
Kadarningsih, A., Pangestuti, I. R. D., Wahyudi, S., & Safitri, J. (2020). The Role of Audit Committee of GCG in Increasing Company Value through ROA. Academic Journal of Interdisciplinary Studies, 9(4), 15. https://doi.org/10.36941/ajis-2020-0057
Lee, M. T., & Raschke, R. L. (2023). Stakeholder legitimacy in firm greening and financial performance: What about greenwashing temptations?☆. Journal of Business Research, 155, 113393. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbusres.2022.113393
Li, D., & Sun, Y. (2024). The Impact of Uncertainty on Investment: Empirical Challenges and a New Estimator. Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, 59(1), 307–338. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0022109023000169
Liu, Z., Du, Y., & Pennings, E. (2024a). Open knowledge disclosure and firm value: a signalling theory perspective. Industry and Innovation, 31(4), 475–500. https://doi.org/10.1080/13662716.2024.2320765
Liu, Z., Du, Y., & Pennings, E. (2024b). Open knowledge disclosure and firm value: a signalling theory perspective. Industry and Innovation, 31(4), 475–500. https://doi.org/10.1080/13662716.2024.2320765
Nestiti, I. L., Lestari, A., & Manda, G. S. (2025). Peranan Strategi Mitigasi dalam Menghadapi Risiko Operasional pada Perusahaan dan UMKM. Innovative: Journal Of Social Science Research, 5(3), 5334–5345.
Pollman, E. (2024). The Making and Meaning ESG. In Harvard Business Law Review (Vol. 14, Number 2).
Pratama, A., Yusoff, H., Yadiati, W., & Jaenudin, E. (2025). Sustainability-related corporate governance and greenwashing practices: preliminary evidence from southeast Asian companies. Meditari Accountancy Research, 33(3), 853–885. https://doi.org/10.1108/MEDAR-07-2024-2579
Salsabila, H., Aldina, S. A. F., widyanto, R., & Disti, P. A. (2024). Analisis Risiko Keuangan Pada Perusahaan Di Era Ketidakpastian Ekonomi Global: Fokus Pada Risiko Likuiditas Dan Risiko Kredit. Jurnal Akademik Ekonomi Dan Manajemen, 1(4), 570–582.
Taufiqurrahman, M. A., & Sudaryati, E. (2024). Pengaruh Analisis Profitabilitas & Likuiditas Terhadap Harga Saham Sektor Energi 2017-2022. 1200–1215.
Wang, J., Wang, S., Dong, M., & Wang, H. (2024). ESG rating disagreement and stock returns: Evidence from China. International Review of Financial Analysis, 91, 103043. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.irfa.2023.103043
Wulandari, C., & Efendi, D. (2022). Pengaruh profitabilitas terhadap nilai perusahaan dengan corporate social responsibility sebagai variabel moderasi. Jurnal Ilmu Dan Riset Akuntansi , 6(11).
Xiao, J., Zhang, X., Yan, H., & Zeng, P. (2025). ESG performance and green cooperative innovation: a signaling theory framework. Asia Pacific Journal of Marketing and Logistics, 1–19. https://doi.org/10.1108/APJML-04-2025-0612
Yu, X., & Xiao, K. (2022). Does ESG Performance Affect Firm Value? Evidence from a New ESG-Scoring Approach for Chinese Enterprises. Sustainability, 14(24), 16940. https://doi.org/10.3390/su142416940
Zheng, C., Khan, M. A. M., Zheng, C., Islam, R., Chowdhury, M. M., & Chowdhury, M. M. (2025). Exploring the relationship between ESG performance and firm value in Chinese and US banks. International Journal of Research in Business and Social Science (2147- 4478), 14(1), 01–16. https://doi.org/10.20525/ijrbs.v14i1.3999
Copyright (c) 2026 Sarah Ayu Deva, Anak Agung Gde Satia Utama

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.
Authors who publish with this journal agree to the following terms:
- Authors retain copyright and grant the journal right of first publication with the work simultaneously licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution License that allows others to share the work with an acknowledgment of the work's authorship and initial publication in this journal.
- Authors are able to enter into separate, additional contractual arrangements for the non-exclusive distribution of the journal's published version of the work (e.g., post it to an institutional repository or publish it in a book), with an acknowledgment of its initial publication in this journal.
- Authors are permitted and encouraged to post their work online (e.g., in institutional repositories or on their website) prior to and during the submission process, as it can lead to productive exchanges, as well as earlier and greater citation of published work.















