JCI Under Macroeconomic Pressure: The Moderating Role of Interest Rates on Inflation and Exchange Rates
Abstract
This study aims to analyze the effect of inflation, exchange rates, and interest rates on the Jakarta Composite Index (JCI), as well as to examine the role of interest rates as a moderating variable in these relationships. This research employs monthly time-series data from 2020-2024 obtained from the Indonesia Stock Exchange and Bank Indonesia. The analytical methods used include multiple linear regression and Moderated Regression Analysis (MRA). The results indicate that inflation, exchange rates, and interest rates individually have a significant effect on the JCI. However, the moderation test reveals that interest rates are not able to significantly strengthen or weaken the relationship between inflation and exchange rates with the JCI. These findings suggest that the Indonesian capital market is more responsive to direct macroeconomic variables rather than the interaction effects among them. This study contributes to the literature on stock market behavior in emerging markets and provides insights for investors and policymakers in responding to global economic volatility.
Downloads
References
Aldiansyah, A. (2024). Analisis peran IHSG sebagai indikator pasar modal di Indonesia. Jurnal Ekonomi dan Pasar Modal.
Ardian, R., Hendayana, Y., & Sulistyowati, A. (2024). Pengaruh inflasi, suku bunga dan nilai tukar terhadap indeks harga saham gabungan. Kinerja, 6(1), 180–193. https://doi.org/10.34005/kinerja.v6i01.3580
Fuad, F. (2021). Pengaruh inflasi, suku bunga, dan nilai tukar terhadap indeks harga saham gabungan. Jurnal Ekonomi dan Bisnis, 24(2), 135–146.
Kartiko, A., & Mayasari, E. (2024). The impact of inflation, interest rates, exchange rates, and money supply on IHSG. 7(3).
Nurjanah, I. (2023). Pengaruh inflasi dan suku bunga terhadap indeks harga saham gabungan. Jurnal Ilmu Ekonomi, 7(1), 22–31.
Paramita, N. P. A., Putri, I. G. A. P. D., & Kusuma, N. P. N. (2024). Pengaruh inflasi, suku bunga dan nilai tukar terhadap harga saham pada perusahaan sektor teknologi yang terdaftar di Bursa Efek Indonesia (BEI). Journal of Economic, Business and Accounting (COSTING), 7(5), 4085–4101. https://doi.org/10.31539/costing.v7i5.11619
Paryudi. (2021). Pengaruh nilai tukar, suku bunga dan inflasi terhadap indeks harga saham gabungan. Jurnal Ilmiah Manajemen Kesatuan, 9(2), 11–20. https://doi.org/10.37641/jimkes.v9i2.448
Rady, A., Essam, F., Yahia, H., & Shalaby, M. (2024). The dynamic relationship between exchange rate volatility and stock prices and the moderating effect of interest rates. European Journal of Business and Management Research, 9(5), 31–44. https://doi.org/10.24018/ejbmr.2024.9.5.2230
Silalahi, E., & Sihombing, R. (2021). Pengaruh faktor makro ekonomi terhadap pergerakan IHSG di Bursa Efek Indonesia periode 2017–2020. Jurnal Riset Akuntansi & Keuangan, 139–152. https://doi.org/10.54367/jrak.v7i2.1361
Wulandari, S., Hutabarat, S. A., Sihombing, T., Simanjuntak, M., & Khairani, R. (2021). Pengaruh inflasi, BI rate dan nilai kurs terhadap IHSG. Journal of Economic, Business and Accounting (COSTING), 4(2), 779–786. https://doi.org/10.31539/costing.v4i2.2049
Copyright (c) 2026 Irma Nur Halimah, Sustari Alamsyah, Dhea Zatira
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.
Authors who publish with this journal agree to the following terms:
- Authors retain copyright and grant the journal right of first publication with the work simultaneously licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution License that allows others to share the work with an acknowledgment of the work's authorship and initial publication in this journal.
- Authors are able to enter into separate, additional contractual arrangements for the non-exclusive distribution of the journal's published version of the work (e.g., post it to an institutional repository or publish it in a book), with an acknowledgment of its initial publication in this journal.
- Authors are permitted and encouraged to post their work online (e.g., in institutional repositories or on their website) prior to and during the submission process, as it can lead to productive exchanges, as well as earlier and greater citation of published work.
