Regional Macroeconomic Determinants of UMR
Abstract
This study examines the role of regional macroeconomic conditions in shaping the Regional Minimum Wage (UMR) across five districts/cities in Central Java Province during the 2018–2023 period. Unlike prior studies that primarily focus on national indicators or limited economic variables, this research integrates fiscal capacity, social conditions, and human capital indicators within a regional panel data framework. The independent variables include Gross Regional Domestic Product (GRDP), poverty rate, number of Micro, Small, and Medium Enterprises (MSMEs), Regional Budget (APBD), number of investment projects, and educational participation. Panel data regression with the Random Effect Model (REM), selected through Chow and Hausman tests, is employed for analysis. The results show that all variables simultaneously have a significant effect on UMR determination. However, partially, only the poverty rate, APBD, and educational participation significantly influence UMR. A higher poverty rate is associated with increased UMR, indicating that wage policy responds not only to economic capacity but also to social pressure and welfare considerations. The positive effect of APBD highlights the importance of regional fiscal strength in supporting higher wage standards, while educational participation reflects the contribution of human capital quality to wage-setting mechanisms. In contrast, GRDP, MSMEs, and investment projects do not exhibit significant effects, suggesting that economic growth and investment do not automatically translate into higher wages at the regional level. This study contributes to the literature by demonstrating that UMR determination is more strongly driven by social and fiscal factors than by conventional growth indicators, emphasizing the need for region-specific, inclusive wage policies grounded in local macroeconomic realities.
Downloads
References
Ali, M. M., Ahmad, I., & Khalil, K. (2022). Role of Foreign Direct Investment in Employment Generation: Evidence from FDI Recipient Economies. Pakistan Languages and Humanities Review, 6(3), 94–107.
Anita, S. Y., Wahyuni, H., Hanum, N., Putra, T. J., Levany, Y., Utami, M. P., Suhardi, Utama, I. A. S., Sufriadi, D., Rizka, Agustina, Y., Prasetyo, I., Zakaria, Mutia, R., Sampe, F., & Sosodoro, N. L. (2022). PENGANTAR EKONOMI (Mikro Dan Makro) (N. K. Lestari, Ed.). PT. Sada Kurnia Pustaka. https://www.researchgate.net/publication/372556465
Bahtiar, H., Gravitiani, E., Mulyanto, M., Sarjiyanto, S., & Hong, W. Y. (2024). Mapping The Transformation of Economic Structure in Solo Raya in 2014-2023: Geospatial Approach. Jurnal Ekonomi Pembangunan: Kajian Masalah Ekonomi Dan Pembangunan, 25(2), 204–223. https://doi.org/10.23917/jep.v25i2.23760
Damayanti, E. (2024). Analisis Pengaruh Upah Minimum dan Tingkat Pendidikan terhadap Penyerapan Tenaga Kerja di Pulau Jawa. Journal of Development Economic and Social Studies, 3(4), 1057–1078. https://doi.org/10.21776/jdess.2024.03.4.07
Ginting, N., & Purwanti, P. A. P. (2024). Pengaruh Upah Minimum, Tingkat Pendidikan dan PDRB terhadap Kesempatan Kerja di Kabupaten/Kota Provinsi Bali Periode 2017-2022. Jurnal Review Pendidikan Dan Pengajaran, 7(3), 10299–10309.
Hanifah, H. I., & Sulaeman, A. S. (2022). Pertumbuhan Ekonomi dan Pendapatan Asli Daerah: Studi Empiris Atas Korelasi Resiprokal. JDEP, 5(2), 146–172. https://ejournal.undip.ac.id/index.php/dinamika_pembangunan/index
Harini, H., Ripki, A. J. H., Sulistianingsih, Herlina, & Ayuningrum, S. (2024). Innovative Strategies in Managing Human Resources in the Digitalization Era of Education: A Progressive Academic Perspective. Jurnal Minfo Polgan, 13(1), 348–356. https://doi.org/10.33395/jmp.v13i1.13650
Husada, A. P., & Yuhan, R. J. (2022). Direct dan Indirect Effect: Determinan Upah Minimum Kabupaten/Kota di Jawa Barat. Jurnal Ekonomi Dan Pembangunan Indonesia, 22(1), 98–116. https://doi.org/10.21002/jepi.2022.06
Indradjaja, N., & Abadi, S. (2025). Minimum Wage Determination For Employees/Workers : A Principle of Legal Protection on Manpower. JLPH: Journal of Law, Politic and Humanities, 5(3), 2026–2034. https://doi.org/10.38035/jlph.v5i3
International Labour Office. (2012). Social justice and growth: The role of the minimum wage (Vol. 4). International Labour Office. www.ilo.org/publns
Khotimah, S. K., & Surhatono, E. (2023). Pengaruh UMKM dan Tenaga Kerja terhadap Pertumbuhan Ekonomi Kabupaten Tuban. Jurnal Apresiasi Ekonomi, 11(1), 73–82.
Kokkinopoulou, E., Vrontis, D., & Thrassou, A. (2025). The impact of education on productivity and externalities of economic development and social welfare: a systematic literature review. Central European Management Journal, 4. https://doi.org/10.1108/CEMJ-04-2024-0124
Liuyi, Y., Yunchan, Z., & Feirong, R. (2023). Does government investment push up manufacturing labor costs? Evidence from China. Humanities and Social Sciences Communications, 10(1). https://doi.org/10.1057/s41599-023-02180-1
Maskur, S. R. R., Aedy, H., Saenong, Z., Tajuddin, Alwi, S., & Barani, L. O. S. (2023). Pengaruh Ketimpangan Pendapatan, Pengangguran dan Pembangunan Manusia terhadap KePovertyan di Indonesia Periode 2017-2021. Jurnal Progres Ekonomi Pembangunan (JPEP), 8(1), 82–95.
Mudana, I. W. E., & Purbadharmaja. (2024). Pengaruh Upah Minimum dan Pertumbuhan Ekonomi terhadap Ketimpangan Distribusi Pendapatan dan Kesejahteraan Masyarakat Kabupaten/Kota di Provinsi Bali. Jurnal Review Pendidikan Dan Pengajaran, 7(3), 9601–9612.
Munarni, V., Syarif, Muh., & Nusantara, A. W. (2024). Pengaruh Upah Minimum dan Pengangguran terhadap KePovertyan di Provinsi Sulawesi Tenggara. Jurnal Progres Ekonomi Pembangunan (JPEP), 9(2), 301–312.
Ningrum, E. P., Sumarno, M., Nursyamsi, S. E., & Siregar, N. (2024). Faktor Terkait Kesenjangan Ekonomi dan Kesejahteraan. Prive, 7(2), 116–126. http://ejurnal.unim.ac.id/index.php/prive
Nofriza, E. (2024). Identifikasi Pengaruh Investasi Sektor Industri dan Upah Minimum Provinsi terhadap Penyerapan Tenaga Kerja Industrial di Provinsi Jambi. Ekonomis: Journal of Economics and Business, 8(2), 1354–1358. https://doi.org/10.33087/ekonomis.v8i2.1787
Nurkodri, M. S., Tan, S., Junaidi, & Achmad, E. (2024). Determinants of Government Spending, Its Impact on Public Welfare, and The Role Of Economic Growth: A Literature Review. Nomico Journal, 1(6), 77–88. https://doi.org/10.62872/jagdc251
Puspasari, D. A., & Handyani, H. R. (2020). Analisis Pengaruh Pendidikan, Kesehatan, dan Upah terhadap Produktivitas Tenaga Kerja di Provinsi Jawa Tengah. JDEP, 3(1), 65–76. https://ejournal.undip.ac.id/index.php/dinamika_pembangunan/index
Putra, D. S. (2021). Teori Ekonomi Mikro (M. Wijayaningtyas, Ed.). PT. Muara Karya (IKAPI).
Putra, M. K. K., & Arif, M. (2023). Determinan Penyerapan Tenaga Kerja di Jawa Timur Tahun 2017-2021. JPEKBM (Jurnal Pendidikan Ekonomi, Kewirausahaan, Bisnis, Dan Manajemen), 7(1), 33–39.
Rahmaini, I. S., & Sujito, A. (2021). The Embeddedness of Traditional Economy Transforming Towards An Alternative Economy: A Case Study of Lumbung Pitih Nagari (LPN) Limau Manis, West Sumatra. MASYARAKAT: Jurnal Sosiologi, 26(2), 137–162. https://doi.org/10.7454/MJS.v26i2
Rahmi, J., & Riyanto. (2022). Dampak Upah Minimum terhadap Produktivitas Tenaga Kerja: Studi Kasus Industri Manufaktur Indonesia. Jurnal Ekonomi & Kebijakan Publik, 13(1), 1–12.
Ramadhan, M. F., & Juanda, R. (2021). Efektifitas Pengaruh Jumlah UMK dan Upah Minimum terhadap Penyerapan Tenaga Kerja di Indonesia. Jurnal Ekonomi Regional Unimal, 4(2), 17–22. https://ojs.unimal.ac.id/ekonomi_regional/index
Ramdhansya, D. R., & Indrawati, L. R. (2022). Faktor-faktor yang Mempengaruhi Upah Minimum Regional di Provinsi Jawa Tengah Tahun 2010-2019. Jurnal Valuasi: Jurnal Ilmiah Ilmu Manajemen Dan Kewirausahaan, 2(2), 281–297. https://doi.org/10.46306/vls.v2i1
Sakti, R. K., Bintoro, N. S., Setyanti, A. M., & Agustin, R. A. (2024). Exploring the Nexus between Regional Fiscal Capacity and the Convergence of Inclusive Economic Development. Journal of Contemporary Governance and Public Policy, 5(1), 55–70. https://doi.org/10.46507/jcgpp.v5i1.261
Silviana, R., & Tallo, A. J. (2020). Analisis Ketimpangan dan Faktor Yang Mempengaruhi Tingkat Ketimpangan Antar Kabupaten/Kota Di Provinsi Jawa Barat. Aksara: Jurnal Ilmu Pendidikan Nonformal, 6(3), 329–338. https://doi.org/10.37905/aksara.6.2.97-102.2020
Simanjuntak, P. J. (2001). Pengantar Ekonomi Sumber Daya Manusia. Lembaga Penerbit FEUI.
Sukirno, S. (1994). Mikroekonomi Teori Pengantar (Ketiga). RajaGrafindo Persada.
Wiryawan, K. J., & Pratiwi, I. A. M. (2024). Pengaruh PDRB dan Upah Minimum Provinsi Terhadap KePovertyan dan IPM di Provinsi-Provinsi Indonesia. Gemawisata: Jurnal Ilmiah Pariwisata, 20(3), 198–224. https://doi.org/10.56910/gemawisata.v20i3.405
Yang, Z., Liu, M., Zhang, S., & Yin, C. (2024). The effects of monthly minimum wages on the labor market. China Economic Review, 88. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.chieco.2024.102310
Yusnike, & Natalia, J. (2023). Peran Pemerintah Kota Tanjungpinang Dalam Penanggulangan KePovertyan. Eksekusi : Jurnal Ilmu Hukum Dan Administrasi Negara, 2(1), 318–324. https://doi.org/10.55606/eksekusi.v2i1.915
Zhang, Y. (2024). The Impact of Minimum Wage System on Low-Income Groups. Business, Economics and Management PGMEE, 41, 467–471.
Zulhija, S. R., & Benardin. (2025). Pengaruh Infrastruktur Publik terhadap PDRB Per Kapita Tahun 2013-2022 (Studi Kasus 34 Provinsi di Indonesia). JIMEA: Jurnal Ilmiah MEA (Manajemen, Ekonomi, Dan Akuntansi), 9(1), 603–628.
Zuliasari, S., & Rachmawati, L. (2021). Analisis Pengaruh PDRB, Jumlah Penduduk, Upah Minimum terhadap Pengangguran di Kabupaten/Kota Provinsi Jawa Timur. Independent: Journal Of Economics, 1(1), 105–119. https://ejournal.unesa.ac.id/index.php/independent
Copyright (c) 2026 Rozzenda Risqi Shafa Hana, Sitti Retno Faridatussalam
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.
Authors who publish with this journal agree to the following terms:
- Authors retain copyright and grant the journal right of first publication with the work simultaneously licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution License that allows others to share the work with an acknowledgment of the work's authorship and initial publication in this journal.
- Authors are able to enter into separate, additional contractual arrangements for the non-exclusive distribution of the journal's published version of the work (e.g., post it to an institutional repository or publish it in a book), with an acknowledgment of its initial publication in this journal.
- Authors are permitted and encouraged to post their work online (e.g., in institutional repositories or on their website) prior to and during the submission process, as it can lead to productive exchanges, as well as earlier and greater citation of published work.
