Analysis of the Effectiveness of Government Social Programs in Reducing Poverty in Central Java During the 2021–2023 Period
Abstract
Using panel observations from 35 regencies and municipalities across Central Java, this quantitative investigation evaluates whether major public social assistance initiatives contributed to poverty alleviation between 2021 and 2023. The assessment encompasses Program Keluarga Harapan (PKH), BPJS, Program Indonesia Pintar (PIP), Bantuan Pangan Non-Tunai (BPNT), together with Kartu Keluarga Sejahtera (KKS). Empirical estimation relies exclusively on secondary datasets compiled by Statistics Indonesia (BPS) and the Ministry of Primary and Secondary Education. Three alternative panel regression specifications Common Effect Model (CEM), Fixed Effect Model (FEM), and Random Effect Model (REM) are estimated before statistical model selection is determined through the Chow, Hausman, and Lagrange Multiplier procedures. Comparative testing ultimately identifies the Fixed Effect Model (FEM) as the specification providing the most appropriate representation. The findings show that PKH, BPJS, and PIP have a negative and statistically significant effect on poverty, indicating that these programs effectively reduce poverty levels. In contrast, BPNT and KKS do not show a significant effect on poverty reduction. Overall, the results suggest that social assistance programs focused on education and health are more effective in alleviating poverty compared to consumption-based assistance programs.
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