Factors Affecting the Value of Indonesian Cocoa Exports in 2000–2023
Abstract
This study analyzes the determinants of Indonesian cocoa export value during the 2000–2023 period. The research aims to examine the effects of domestic cocoa production, domestic producer prices, international cocoa prices, international cocoa consumption, the rupiah exchange rate against the US dollar, and total world cocoa production on Indonesia’s cocoa export performance. The study employs the Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) regression method using annual time series data obtained from Statistics Indonesia (BPS), Bank Indonesia, the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), the International Cocoa Organization (ICCO), and the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA). The econometric model is developed based on export supply and demand theories as well as previous empirical studies. The estimation results indicate that Indonesian cocoa production and international cocoa prices have a positive and statistically significant effect on cocoa export value. Meanwhile, domestic producer prices, international cocoa consumption, exchange rate fluctuations, and total world cocoa production do not have a significant effect. The model is statistically robust, as indicated by the F-test and coefficient of determination (R² = 0.936), which shows that the model explains most variations in cocoa export value. These findings suggest that domestic production capacity and global price dynamics are the main drivers of Indonesia’s cocoa export performance.
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